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Mr Murray Mr Cortazzi
ا امده
CONFIDENTIAL
Икк
- 18
Done
RA.
257vü
Mr withashem Clos
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CHINA: NATIONAL PEOPLES CONGRESS, 1979
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...ཏྭཾ 417
If the despatch
1. I attach a copy of a despatch from Mr Cradock on the meeting of the National Peoples Congress in Peking from 18 June to 1 July.
2. The despatch puts a useful perspective on the Embassy's earlier telegraphic reporting of the meeting and offers (paragraphs 15 to 19) a thoughtful assessment of the conclusions which can be drawn about the political balance within the Chinese Leadership, the prospects for economic and social progress and the outlook for British exports.
3.
Mr Cradock rightly makes no bones about the enormous problems facing China, in particular those arising from the continuing tensions within the leadership and from China's economic stagnation over recent years: we must not expect China to move quickly, or even necessarily in a straight line, towards the economic and social goals on which the Leadership appears to be broadly agreed.
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4. But, as Mr Cradock notes, the existence of a relatively broad measure of agreement within the leadership is indicated - if by nothing else by the fact that, for the first time for over 15 years, the Congress meeting was held on time. Premier Hua's authoritative speech showed that he wields more influence and power within the leadership than has at some times been evident over the past 12 months; and that the emphasis of Chinese policy over the coming months will be on slow, gradual economic progress at the expense of ideological considerations. This is much more realistic than was suggested by the ambitious, grandiose schemes which were being mooted last year. There will be
There will be important and growing opportunities for British exports; but we should not expect too much too soon.
5. The relationship between Hua and Vice Premier Deng is bound to remain uneasy, although they appear to have established tolerably comfortable modus vivendi; and the continuing failure of the Chinese Government to introduce young blood into the top levels of the leadership must raise some questions over the likely effectiveness of the Chinese Government machine once the present generation of veteran administrators, with Deng at their fore, leaves the scene. But the manner in which the Congress was held, and the drift of its discussions, confirmed that China appears to be set more firmly than at any time for over a decade on course which should lead in
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