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may have to increase their aid after independence, perhaps even triple it.) Politically they are apprehensive of the threat posed in different ways by Venezuela, Cuba and the United States. The trade unions are very powerful in the islands and there is widespread fear in Curacao that if the political situation should deteriorate after independence and a left-wing government comes to power, Venezuela (or even the United States) might occupy the three southern islands (Curaçao, Aruba and Bonaire). Meanwhile the Dutch Government have apparently agreed to remain responsible for the defence of the Netherlands Antilles after independence, probably in cooperation with the United States and Venezuela. At the moment the Dutch military presence in the area consists of one frigate always on station, a detachment of marines at Aruba and two Neptunes at the Curacao air base.
Relations with Venezuela
6. A treaty defining the territorial waters between the Netherlands Antilles and Venezuela was signed in Curacao in March 1978. The boundaries as defined in the new treaty are well clear of any possible claim by Colombia.
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7. Venezuela is apparently interested in closer economic cooperation with the islands and has offered to provide technical assistance for oil exploration and to promote joint ventures, such as the establishment of a shipping line between the Antilles and Venezuela and measures to help relieve unemployment in the Antilles by e.g. permitting Antilles
workers to emigrate to Venezuela. There is little doubt that if and when the Dutch leave Venezuela's influence because of its proximity,
its wealth and its use of the islands as a back door to the Venezuelan
market and offshore tax haven will become predominant. The Venezuelan nationalised oil corporation has shown interest in acquiring a financial stake in the Shell and Exxon refineries on Curaçao and Aruba; these refineries were specifically designed to handle Venezuelan heavy crude and produce residual fuel oil. There would be obvious political advantage to Venezuela in exercising some control over external refining of some of its oil but it is not yet certain that Venezuela would gain any particular financial advantage, at least in the short term, from a stake in the refineries.
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American Section Research Department