Registry No.
SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
Top Secret,
Secret.
Confidential.
Restricted.
Unclassified.
PRIVACY MARKING
In Confidence
CONFIDENTIAL
DRAFT
TERRITORIAL SURVEY
Type 1 +
From
To:-
TERRITORY: BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
POPULATION: 10,500
SPECIAL FACTORS:
None
Telephone No. Ext.
Department
DSR 11
PROSPECTS FOR INDEPENDENCE: Quite bright in medium terms. Depending on the outcome of Wickham's Cay loan repayment prob- lem, BVI will be out of grant-in-aid by 1979. Local prefer- ence is generally to remain dependent, mainly because of the lack of political self-confidence and the absence of politi- cal leadership to take the country forward to independence. There is evidence, however, that the younger generation feels
that the time for further constitutional advances is near.
There is a strong political wish among Islanders to run their own affairs and this feeling, together with the ending of grant-in-aid, could cause the local government to seek internal self-government. This would be acceptable as a stage in a planned programme leading to independence and could just possibly come about at the time of the next general election (due in 1979). An attractive aid package offered at
the right moment may help things along.
POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVES:
(i) Union with US Virgin Islands unlikely to be acceptable
to either territory or to be constitutionally feasible. (ii) Union with other Caribbean territories - not aceeptable
to the population and geographically impractical.
RECOMMENDED POLICY: Accept dependence for the present. the territory out of grant-in-aid in 1979 the need to encourage the political will and material conditions for independence must be actively pursued by HMG. An attractive aid package at the right moment might help towards this.
With
CONFIDENTIAL