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8. (contd)
made to allow for arrivals with onward visas and those returning to China on Chinese documents, there could be : some pressure from the Chinese for us also to allow for the outflow of travellers on Hong Kong documents;
and, as the tables show, that is subject to fluctuations so great that the resulting figures would be a totally mis- leading basis for public discussion in Hong Kong or for policy-making either here or in China. We have made it perfectly clear to NCNA that our own concern takes into account these minor discrepancies. If there should
be a significant change in the pattern of movement across the border for instance far higher number of short visits to Hong Kong on Chinese documents - - we should of course need to ensure that this was reflected in the way “ immigration statistics were handled here.
9.
It
It is also open to the Chinese to argue that whereas in the past there has been no significant net outflow of Hong Kong residents to China, all is now changed and that any net movement now into China is not a temporary phenomenon but shows that compatriots here are flocking to join the (second) long march to modernization. would be churlish to suggest that many will fall by the wayside, but there is ample statistical evidence to argue that several years would be needed to establish a definite trend. At any rate, we await with interest any reaction from N CNA. Mr Tan was clearly impressed by our willingness to provide such detailed figures. We can only hope that this has underlined our concern and will produce results either in the form of a statistical debate or
(better) a reduction in numbers arriving.
10.
So
There are already some grounds for guarded optimism. The rate of increase dropped in July. far the August figures show a slight reduction (daily average of 162 up to 17 August). Most significantly, there is evidence in a recent traveller's tale (at Annex I), of a policy of "self-restraint" being applied at shum Chun.
Hong Kong Travel Documents
11.
You may find some background on Hong Kong travel documents useful. This is attached as Annex II.
Discussion with Chinese officials
12.
Please use the attached tables and the rather extended commentary in this letter as you think appropriate in your contacts with Chinese officials. However, we
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