Memo from LORD ELTON
16th March, 1978
Re: HONG KONG
I had conversations with the Governor, Sir Murray Maclehose, and his political adviser, Dr. D.C. Wilson,
End of the Lease:
It is quite impossible to judge as yet what will be the attitude of the Chinese Sour to the Crown Colony when the Lease expires in 1997. Clearly Hong Kong is of considerable use to them in their present effort to modernise China as a means of gaining foreign exchange. It also has other uses as, for instance, a foothold in the capitalist world. The present policy is very likely to continue for the next five years and will probably do so for a further five, beyond that no prudent politician can claim to see. The economy is at present strong. Only 121% of investment capital in Hong Kong has its origins overseas. In this respect, at least, therefore, the international assessment of Hong Kong's likely future is of less importance to the market than that of local opinion. Political developments in Mainland China reflect the final emergence of the group of politicians who formerly served under Mao but who did not agree with him. They are using his teachings of the '50's to offset his teachings of the '70's. They are hell-bent on modernisation and to this extent they are prepared to sacrifice the wholly independent commune and rural development. They are also accepting inequalities of reward in order to get people to work in factories.
The Police:
Sir Murray thinks it will take at least five years to sort out the trouble in the police. The recent demonstrations against the Independent Commission Against Corruption are in part due to the fact that the Commission had concentrated almost exclusively on the police although, there was manifest corruption in other public departments. It was also in part due to the fact that they were seen to be digging back very far into the histories of individuals and looking out for really quite small offences. Sir Murray's response was to declare an amnesty in November '77 for anything done before 1 September '77.
Policemen under suspicion are interdicted. Unfortunately they are suspended on full pay and have nothing whatever to do all day except stir up trouble. They are also mostly housed in communal blocks with other policemen,
Sir Murray thinks that he will be able to see in about three months (i.e. towards the end of May this year) which way things will go with the ICAC. (His own term of office finishes in November and I would have thought an extension should be devoutly hoped for).
They are trying to produce a new and "uncontaminated" cadre of recruits. The standard of education required from candidates has been considerably raised. About 50% of all recruits now go through residential training for two years.
The military cannot be seen as an alternative to the police (though they were an effective back-up at the time of the Chinese riots). They are mostly Gurkhas with no common language shared with the population.
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