As a percentage of total numbers of young home entrants on the "central projection"
Table 1:
Deferring demand
Numbers with
Academic year
entry deferred
'000s
1980/81
1.8
1.1
1981/82
9.1
5.2
1982/83
22.2
12.2
1983/84
35.5
19.6
1984/85
48.5
26.8
1985/86
61.3
33.9
1986/87
74.1
40.9
1987/88
85.4
47.6
1988/89
96.8
53.9
1989/90
109.0
60.4
1990/91
113.7
65.8
1991/92
112.1
67.3
1992/93
106.1
65.4
1993/94
94.7
60.4
1994/95
81.0
52.4
Model E
8
27. It is difficult to see such a scheme operating fairly on a systematic basis. Institutions would naturally be inclined to give preference for immediate entry to the most able candidates and heavy wastage might occur among the less able (though random selection for deferment or higher grants for deferred-entry students might help to overcome this kind of problem). It is also important to recognise the possible impact of widespread deferment on the employment situation: even at low levels of youth unemployment, children with parents in professional and managerial occupations would probably find it easier than others to obtain temporary jobs for a year before entering higher education; and those who did find employment might do so only at the expense of other youngsters not intending to go on to higher education at all.
28. Short of a formal system of deferment, however, it might be possible to take steps to encourage and facilitate voluntary deferment. Again, one way of doing this might be to introduce higher grants for deferred-entry students, which might in practice be achieved by lowering to 21 the age at which students are regarded as independent of their parents for award purposes.
29. A slight variant of this kind of approach, which would have a similar impact on the incidence of peak student numbers, would be to encourage more students to spend a year in employment in the middle of their higher education courses. An increase in the number of sandwich course students would be one way of achieving this, although there might be little saving in academic staff time because of the need for some continuing supervision during a student's intercalated year of employment.
30. All the preceding models have taken as their base an assumption that there will be a sharp decline in the numbers of students coming forward for higher education at the end of the next decade. The final possibility to be examined, however, might arise if social and economic requirements brought about significant changes in the pattern and composition of the higher education student body.
31. For example, Appendix II draws attention to the possibility that changes