G.S. 84
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XCRI(78)20
Outlook for the future
13
It is impossible to estimate how many more refugees may arrive here in the next two months and before the change in the seasons makes travel by sea in small boats so hazardous that very few people attempt it. However it seems certain that as onward movement under the new US programme starts in September, numbers will only go down slowly: they could even continue to increase if the numbers arriving do not drop (as they have in past years) in late autumn/winter.
14
To improve the position it is necessary that more refugees be settled in countries other than the US. The Government is urging UNHCR to make greater efforts in this direction and is making its own direct approaches. The UK has agreed to take at least 50 refugees (who should shortly leave Hong Kong) and has been asked if more could be accepted.
The return of Chinese from Vietnam to China
15
The great majority of the Chinese from Vietnam who have recently returned to China are from North Vietnam, and there is as yet no indication that they will try to move on to Hong Kong. Some Chinese from the south are known to have reached Canton travelling overland and a few have applied to join relatives in Hong Kong. If large numbers of Chinese from the south succeed in getting back to China, they will probably have greater difficulty in settling in China than their compatriats from North Vietnam. They may well seek to come to Hong Kong, either to join relatives here, or to try to move on to the US and other countries. However, they would not be eligible for the current US Indo-China refugee programme nor for processing as refugees by UNHCR. The Chinese authorities have been made aware of the difficulties that Hong Kong would face in absorbing such immigrants. They had been told that any wishing to settle in Hong Kong should apply through their relatives here, but that we would be unable to relax the stringent criteria which have been applied to similar applications by Hong Kong dependants for the special flights from Ho Chi Minh City. The Chinese have also been told that those wishing to travel elsewhere should only come to Hong Kong once they have obtained travel documents for their onward destination.
Future Policy
16
The widespread humanitarian interest in the plight of refugees from Vietnam would make it difficult for Hong Kong to
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