2
This would, at the
wry least, not help
old
Lour relations with China, than to dot matters rest
where they are now. Against this it could be argued that we should at least test out the Chinese
position and attempt to secure signature to the Agreement with a minimal statement on our side. The Chinese appear to have allowed Thai International Airways to continue to operate into Taiwan at the same time as operating into China: and we can reiterate our argument that it is not reasonable or logical for the Chinese to demand from us in the context of a technical document such as an ASA, a political statement further to that already given at the time of exchange of Ambassadors. Nevertheless the balance of probability is that the Chinese would reject anything less than the sort of statement contained in Peking's step 3.
:
-
This approach would also give us the opportunity to find out whether any substantive improvements could be negotiated to the initialled text such as traffic rights between Hong Kong and Peking; overflying rights for all British Airways services to Hong Kong; and the addition of certain intermediate route points. It would
also leave open the possibility of negotiating a more
forthoing statement in return for tangible commercial benefits. But this approach too has its limits, since the Department of Trade view is that even in the best conditions, the advantage of an ASA for British Airways would be a profit of £2/24 million per annum, which is still less than the sum at risk for Cathay Pacific (at a conservative estimate, £4 million per annum, excluding the disruptive effect on Cathay's total services)
(b)
Attempt to win over the DOT to accept stage 3 as our final negotiating position
This approach would require your intervention with Mr Rogers and probably a meeting.. We could tell the DOT that in the last analysis it is for the FCO,
taking into account the views of posts, to decide how much risk there is f an adverse Taiwan
But there is no wa
reaction.
conclus ly how Taiwan will of risk remains very real.
of know g
eact, C... che element
present
howing, the