CONFIDENTIAL
TO CANBERRA (AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SHORT HOLIDAY VISITS BY AUSTRALIANS TO BALI), THIS WOULD HAVE TO BE SET AGAINST THE
LOSS OF STOPOVER TOURISTS, FOR EXAMPLE ON THE PRESENT QANTAS SERVICE THROUGH INDONESIA. GARUDA'S SERVICES TO HONG KONG, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT TO THEM, COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE
CONSIDERATIONS IN HONG KONG TELNO 738. WE THINK THE FALANCE
WOULD BE MARGINAL EITHER WAY, IN WHICH CASE POLITICAL FACTORS
WOULD PREDOMINATE. IF INDONESIA AGREED AT THE START TO OPPOSE
THE SCHEME FOR REASONS OF ASEAN SOLIDARITY, THEN THEY MIGHT WELL
ADD IT AS ONE MORE FACTOR IN THE BALANCE OF THEIR ATTITUDES
TO EAST/WEST AND NORTH/SOUTH. MORE DIRECTLY, IF THEY AGREED TO OPPOSE, THIS COULD PRESUMABLY SPILL OVER ON TO THE UK/INDONESIA
AIR SERVICES DISCUSSIONS DUE IN AUGUST, AT WHICH THE QUESTION OF OVERFLYING RIGHTS IS INDONESIA'S STRONGEST, EVEN IF UNPLAYED, CARD. IF INDONESIA TRIED TO OBSTRUCT OVERFLIGHT FOR THE
PROPOSED NEW UK/AUSTRALIA AIR SERVICES, THEN THE SCHEME'S ATTRACTION MIGHT BE LESSENED.
3. WE CONCLUDE THAT, ALTHOUGH, IF LEFT ALONE, INDONESIA MIGHT
BE NEUTRAL IF NOT FAVOURABLE, THEY ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW SINGAPORE'S LEAD, AND MIGHT THEN HAVE THE POWER TO DAMAGE US AND GOTHE AUSTRALIANS.
O'BRIEN
FILE S
MAED
SEAD
SWPD
HKGD
SAD
MED
NAD
SAM D
MISS BROWN
MR.BUTLER
MR.MURRAY MR.CORTAZZI
[COPIES SENT TO CAD/DOT]
- 2 - CONFIDENTIAL
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