A SUMMARY OF THE CONSULTANTS' FINDINGS
In terms of the objectives of these investigations, the Hong Kong air transport system was found to be inadequate to serve the future demand for air services. Means were studied to correct this deficiency and/or alter the demand for air transport. Alternative plans were generated and projected to determine their long-term, cumulative effect.
In the Consultants' opinion, the one indisputable fact emerging from the study is that Hong Kong cannot afford to retain Kai Tak as its sole air commerce facility. The continued growth of air transport is indisputable; Kai Tak can sustain that growth for a limited period only, and options to increase its capability are not viable.
A forecast of the economic impact of rejecting part of the demand for air services was presented, but the impact of offering severely impaired service quality has not been treated. The magnitude of congestion as system failure is approached is difficult to envisage, but the current situation at Haneda (Tokyo) during peak periods is an indication. The demand rejection certain to occur by the mid-1980s at Kai Tak will be combined with the extremely severe and unpleasant terminal and access congestion problems. This situation should be compared with the probable 1990 air transport environment at other regional points. Tokyo, Osaka, Taipei, Manila, Singapore, Bangkok, Jakarta, and Seoul are either constructing or planning new expanded facilities to meet the demand. If Hong Kong does not meet this challenge, its market will be fixed.
Tourism provides the bulk of regional air traffic and therefore usually dictates the route structure of the major carriers. If Hong Kong cannot meet the demand generated by tourism, and traffic must be diverted elsewhere, the air transport growth patterns for the region will develop quite differently from the current projections. For example, Hong Kong's strong position on the major trunk routes could be lost to extensive facilities now under construction in Taiwan. The economic and political consequences of such a shift could be quite serious. It is logical to assume that the airlines and countries that have embarked on long- range programs to attract tourism will take advantage of any prolonged period of capacity deficiencies in Hong Kong.
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