ALTERNATIVES
AMP-
OPTIONS
In substance, the air transport system options available consist of three distinctly different policies:
(1) Do nothing; let Kai Tak congest to the point where service is
sufficiently derogated to restrain additional growth.
(2) Intervene in the process of demand so that its rate of growth is artificially constrained; retain Kai Tak as the sole Hong Kong airport.
(3) Construct a replacement for Kai Tak.
The first policy would not differ significantly in effect from the second except that policies could be devised to maximize productivity of the limited resource (unlikely to result if demand is left to seek its own level). The choices are thus reduced to variations of keeping Kai Tak and accepting the penalties of failure of supply, if any, versus replacing it at some time. The latter case resolves to questions of timing and nature of the replacement.
Four alternative courses of action were investigated:
(1) Remain at Kai Tak and apply constraints to traffic demand
growth so that optimum facility utilization results.
(2) Expand Kai Tak.
(3) Construct a minimum new airport facility between 1975 and
1985.
(4) Delay a decision until, say, 1980; then construct an airfield with two independent all-weather runways between 1980 and 1990.
The first alternative produced enormous economic penalties to Hong Kong. The second was not in the least cost-effective. The third was considered the most acceptable. The fourth was eliminated from consideration because of the excessive penalties of delay.
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