note that the most recent industry forecasts (by U.S. Federal Aviation Administration) for international traffic predict just such a temporary setback.
As an influence on tourist air travel, the recession being experienced in the United States and the slower economic growth rate in Japan and elsewhere are probably of equal importance. These factors are attributable in part to the rapid rise in petroleum prices. The dis- cretionary incomes of consumers have been cut or their growth slowed, and this has led to a lower growth rate for tourism - only 5% in Hong Kong in 1974 — and an actual reduction at some destinations.
The long-range forecast assumes that such recessions will occur periodically, but will always be followed by a resumption of economic expansion, growth in business and consumer incomes, and a recovery in the air traffic growth rate. As of the end of 1974, the Consultants hold that this assumption remains valid.
VALIDATION OF THE FORECASTS
The experience of other air travel centers in the Far East and in the rest of the world, together with results of forecasts for these centers, provides insight to the Hong Kong forecasts. The growth of total domestic and international air passenger traffic from 1963 to 1971 at six airports in the Far East is shown in Figure 4. Hong Kong annual growth is clustered with the growth rates of several other airports in the middle of a range from 29.6% for Taipei to 9.9% for Manila. The experience at Hong Kong is typical of the Far East. Independent forecasts show Singapore traffic increasing a little faster than that of Hong Kong until 1985, then growing at a parallel rate to 1995 at a volume level slightly below Hong Kong. Bangkok traffic is not expected to grow as rapidly; this is in line with 1963 to 1971 experience. Singapore is preparing to construct a new passenger terminal and a second parallel runway to meet a projected 1982 demand of 12.3 million passengers. A new airport for Taipei is under construction and will be operational in 1978. The other major cities are planning or seriously considering new international airports to handle the anticipated traffic.
Similar comparisons with air centers outside the Far East have disclosed several parallels. London visitor and air transport experience of 14 years ago indicates patterns similar to the Hong Kong forecast. It has been suggested that conditions unique to Hong Kong will ultimately constrain the supply of visitor facilities, rendering the air services demand forecasts invalid. The Consultants have examined this aspect and note that where entrepreneurs are not regulated and a demand for tourism exists, facilities inevitably are developed. Despite limitations of geography or infrastructure, development of facilities to support tourism has consistently occurred in sufficient quantity where air transport services are available.
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