CONFIDENTIAL #
EXPLANATORY NOTES TO THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This Summary sets out the findings and conclusions of the Ralph M. Parsons Company's investigation into Hong Kong's air transport system which was undertaken during 1973 and 1974. The impact of increased oil prices and the world wide recession had not been felt at the time the Parsons' reports were written, consequently the fore- casts and aviation characteristics referred to in the Summary relate to the pre-oil crisis era.
2.
Increased oil prices did of course have a fundamental effect on the whole air travel industry and the growth which was forecast by Parsons has not been realised. However, now that the situation has stabilised the new characteristic of air transport has emerged, enabling revised forecasts to be produced by the Director of Civil Aviation with some degree of confidence.
2.
The following comments on certain aspects of the consultants' findings regarding shortfalls in Kai Tak's capability are made in the light of the revised forecasts :
(a)
(b)
(c)
Groundside access
It is still envisaged that internal airport circulation will be the limiting constraint on groundside capacity. Present forecasts show that congestion will occur on certain access roads by 1984 and that this will become severe and widespread by 1985.
Passenger processing
The consultants considered that 10 million annual passengers was the practical limit of Kai Tak's system capacity. Forecasts now show that this level will be reached in 1985, i.e. 5 years later than
that envisaged by the consultants. However, consideration of busy hour passenger flows highlights an earlier shortfall in the developed terminal building where the capacity of 6,000 passengers/hour is expected to be exceeded in 1982. Since 1974 an average growth rate of over 10% per annum has been recorded and this is expected to continue during the 1980's.
Runway capacity
When the consultants undertook their study they were not able to take into account the increasing problems of turbulent wake caused by the change-over to wide- bodied aircraft. This has resulted in an increased separation being required between wide-bodied and conventional aircraft, thus reducing the acceptance rate of a single runway. Runway capacity at Kai Tak is now 28 aircraft/hour and the achieved standard busy hour rate in 1977 was 24 aircraft/hour. This rate is forecast to grow at approximately 4% and reach runway capacity in about 1981. The capacity of the runway will increase slightly when a preponderance of wide-bodied aircraft are operating, but this will give only a small extension of about one year.
Civil Aviation Department
April 1978 CONFIDENTIAL
機密