XCC(78)29
5
The Consultants arrived at their conclusions before the effects of the oil crisis and subsequent recession became apparent. In order to assess the effects of the consequent slow-down in the growth of air traffic, the Civil Aviation Department in 1975/76 carried out a review of the forecast of demand. This review was based on an analysis of eight different forecasts of traffic growth affecting Hong Kong, including those of the International Air Transport Association and the Boeing Aeroplane Company, from which most probable growth rates over two consecutive five year periods were established and projected to provide an estimate of the number of passengers to be expected in 1980 and 1985. This review was up-dated early in 1977 in consultation with the Hong Kong Tourist Association and confirmed that the maximum practical capacity of Kai Tak (10 million passengers per annum) will probably be reached in 1985, on the assumption that recovery from the world recession will be a gradual process up to 1980 and that thereafter there will be a return to growth rates approaching those of the pre-oil crisis years. (The total of arriving and departing passengers at Kai Tak in 1977 was 4. 89 million, an increase of nearly 11% over 1976.)
The preferred site
6
The potentially suitable alternative site referred to by the Consultants (paragraph 3 above) is at Chek Lap Kok, an island off the north-west coast of Lantau. A map showing the location of the island is at Annex B, This site was chosen in preference to others
in the following way:
(a)
(b)
(c)
The Consultants' brief directed them to search for replacement airport sites, a task which they performed in parallel with the forecasts and studies of Kai Tak. A list of 13 sites that could conceivably support one or more runways was developed. Sites with single- runway potential were named on the initial premise that an airport supplementary to Kai Tak might be built, as part of a two-airport system.
An initial short listing of sites rejected 7 of the 13 because of airspace constraints or lack of ground space. The two-airport concept was abandoned early in the study as being inefficient, thus eliminating the single-runway options. The six surviving sites were examined in detail and the conclusion was eventually reached that the site which offered the best potential to warrant additional study was a site partially on the island of Chek Lap Kok.
The only other site which was considered a possibility was on Lamma Island. This site was ruled out
because:
CONFIDENTIAL **