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C.S. 166
CONFIDENTIAL # 2
機密
Copy No
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Fage 9 of 18
of 80
XCC(77)54
The Validity of the Assumptions (a) Costs
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The Government considers that the Corporation's method of calculating costs is prudent. The Corporation's estimate of escalated contract costs, at about $3,500 million, would be reduced if the con- tracts were let to the contractors working on the MIS before they move their equipment and before the Corporation disbands its staff overseeing contracts. The Government considers that this reduction could be between $200 million and $400 million. There would also be unquanti- fiable savings, or avoidance of substantial additional expenditure, if the extension were to be built before the congestion on the roads of the Tsuen Wan corridor becomes more acute.
(b) Passengers
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The Corporation has predicted that the MIS/Tsuen Wan extension will carry 1.8 million passengers a day by 1986. The Government's independent prediction was based on an MTR alignment investigated by the CTS consultants. Adjustments were made to allow for the assumptions behind the Corporation's proposal and those used during the CTS. These adjustments covered differences in population, income per worker, the year of operation, system changes, comple- mentary public transport and fare differentials. Once these adjust- ments to the CTS forecast were made, the Corporation's figure of 1.8 million passengers a day in 1986 was confirmed.
(c) Fares
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The Corporation has assumed a fare structure for the MIS/ Tsuen Wan extension system ranging from $1 to $2.50 in 1975 dollars. Although these are higher than current public transport fares, two factors justify a differential, namely, savings in travel time and the reliability of the MTR. As the popularity of the cross harbour bus services and PLBs demonstrates, travellers are prepared to pay more for a faster, more reliable and more convenient service. The MTR will provide significant savings in time over surface public transport. It is estimated, for example, that in the early 1980's a journey from the centre of Tsuen Wan to Tsim Sha Tsui would take approximately half an hour by MTR compared with an hour by bus (including walking and waiting times); from the centre of Tsuen Wan to Kwun Tong the MTR would take about three-quarters of an hour, whereas buses would take an hour and fifteen minutes. As the MTR will offer a fast, regular and dependable service, its fares can reasonably be higher than com- peting transport modes. It also has to be borne in mind that one effect
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