The ICS has adopted the land use forecast used in CTS and
termed land use three. It has been modified in detail only
to reflect latest known development. This forecast is in
line with current Government thinking but it also means
that the population on Hong Kong Island will grow by 28
percent over the next 15 years although it has remained static
for the last 15 years. On the other hand the view has been
expressed that if the new towns in the Territory grow more
slowly than planned then the ICS figures could be an under-
estimate for the Island in future.
3.17
The CTS forecasts used in the ICS assume a signficant
restraint of private vehicle demand. This policy may not
be as successful as assumed. If it is successful it may
not lead to the number of public transport trips forecast
since it is extremely difficult to assess what effect such a policy would have on travel behaviour. These arguments
would suggest that public transport demand could have been
over estimated.
3.18
The four options have been evaluated assuming that PLB's
were banned entirely from the corridor. In practice
PLB's could not be banned overnight and are, in any event,
unlikely to be banned entirely from serving journeys in the corridor. The policy finally implemented is likely to
reduce the demand for all modes in the corridor compared with the forecasts in Option A-D but the extent will vary according to the policy adopted. It is worth noting also
that the greater the proportion of movement carried below
the surface the less there is the argument for reducing
the number of PLB's on account of the shortage of street
space above
although this is not the only consideration
involved.
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