5
expenditure in the ensuing year; but this is comforting as I am already rather fearful about the rate at which
recurrent expenditure is now growing. And it will continue to grow unabated in the forecast years 1979-80 to 1981-82 (which will certainly be years of economic uncertainty and possibly years of growing political doubts), since we have taken on open-ended commitments
in certain areas.
1978-79 Draft Estimates
(a) Overall
The Draft Estimates may now be summarised as
7.
follows:
Revenue:
Recurrent
Capital
Expenditure:
Recurrent
Capital
Surplus on recurrent account
Deficit on capital account
.. Difference is now an
overall surplus of
$mn
$mn
9,130(+13)
1,236(+6.5)
10,366(+12)
7,323(+17)
2,943(+54)
10,266(+26)
+1,807
-1,707
+ 100
8.
Note: Figures in brackets are the percentage
changes on the revised estimates
for 1977-78 shown in paragraph 3 above.
I cannot yet evaluate these figures in terms of the relative size of the public sector (the G.D.P.
forecast for 1978 will not be finished for another few
days, but it may be 9% in real terms and 16% in money terms)* or the load on the construction industry
* A quick calculation indicates that the ratio of public expenditure (Consolidated Account) to G.D.P. after falling from 18.8% in the recession year 1974-75 to an average of 16.6% in the two upswing years 1975-76 and 1976-77 rose to 17.7% in the later recovery year 1977-78 and will rise further to 18.4% in 1978–79.
S