{
SHORST
OP
Boney
DEWEY COURS SINCE 1975 APPORTING OTHER PRIORITY THO COMMETNOME
The Changing Nature of the Saviot Threat
46.
It is the JIC view (0) Chew there is no issne in the third
world over which the prezent Soviet leadership would resort to
war against the West. Roucor the same report coneindes that the
essential threat to the Vest tes in the application by the Sovzet
Union of pressures to secure a position of dominance in vital
areas of the world and to achieve important Soviet objectivek
without resort to hostilities. Thus while it is considered that
the main military threat to the Went lies in Eastern Europe,
Sovic actions world-wide pissent a threat to Western interests.
In this connection the Soviet Union is currently particularly
active in the Persian Gulf and in Africa where thete policies are
opport.viistic and designed to gain political influence,
17.
The TIS have assessed (11) that, even in the unlikely event of
« Soviet attack in the CINTO arca, two states normally closely
associated with the USSR, Syria and Iraq, would be most unlikely
to make military facilities available to the Russians.
18.
In the Persian Gulf therefore the Soviet Union is pursuing
a policy of penetration with caution. It has, for example, cen-
cluded an aros deal with Kuwait and may exploit this opening.
The area is fertile ground for subversion and the Soviet Union is
ready to exploit this either directly or by proxy through Iraq
and the PONY. In Afghanistan the Soviet presence and influence
has increased markedly since the coup.
Notes.
10.
11.
JIC(78)2
D/DIS 13/1/2 dated 14 Deccaber 1977
A - 12
SECRET
THIS IS A COPY
THE ORIGINAL HAS BEEN
RETAINED IN THE DEPARTMENT.
UNDER SECTION 3(4) OF THE
PUBLIC RECORDS ACT 2