anotay
From: Miss DJ M Pope, DI73c
SECRT
UK
MINISTRY OF DEFENCE
UK EYES 'A' EYES'A'
Eutr
Metropole Building Northumberland Avenue London WC2N 5BL
Telephone (Direct Dialling) 01-218
K Walker Esq Assessments Staff
Cabinet Office
INDEX
No
"(@vritchboard)
22 FFR 1978
Your bference
93.51
Our reference
DII/73c/715/AS
Action Taken
DOCK
REGIS Date
FA
IX
70 February 1978
COPY 2 OF Y
My Thapa
табасту see my Tettetow
Wilson
jou
'THE THREAT TO HONG KONG'
Enclosed is DI73c's requested contribution to the JIC note on the Threat to Hong Kong.' Our contribution consists of 4 parts as follows:
a)
Economic reasons for China's current and future policies;
b)
The threat of economic sanctions by China;
c) Could China run Hong Kong?
d) A draft appendix detailing China's economic relationship with Hong Kong.
At the drafting discussions in Cabinet Office we were asked to follow roughly the format of the 1973 JIC note. a) and b) are therefore relevant to paras 8-12 and 23 respec- tively.
You will recall that part c) was specifically asked for and Mr Stewart kindly agreed that Hong Kong Department would assist us with any information they had. To do the subject full justice a whole range of scenarios in which China has taken over Hong Kong would need to be considered. In view, however, of the highly speculative nature of this subject none of us would probably be justified in spending the amount of time required to produce these scenarios. We have assumed a situation in which the Chinese have effected a quick take-over without British support and approval. Our answer to the question posed on whether or not the Chinese could run Hong Kong can be summed up as: "Yes they could, but with extreme difficulty and less profit than they presently make out of it."
In producing the draft appendix we found gaps or information that could not be filled or checked from our own data or the rest of Whitehall. Furthermore JSIS Hong Kong tell us that any information the Hong Kong government secretariat has on communist investment will only be available by direct tasking of LIC Hong Kong by Cabinet Office. This also seems to apply to Special Branch who, judging from previous reports, have considerable information on communist commercial activity. We have therefore drawn up below a list of the information required and you may wish to discuss with Hong Kong Department approaching LIC, Hong Kong.
Information required is:
a)
}
1977 data for China's purchases of foreign currency (for Appendix, para 4, Table I);
UK EYES A
SECRET
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