RBY 2912002
IMMEDIATE
CYPHER/CAT A
FM HONG KONG 291011Z
SECRET
THIS IS A COPY
THE ORIGINAL HAS BEEN RETAINED
IN THE DEPARTMENT UNDER SECTION 0001
$(4) OF THE PUBLIC RECORDS ACTI
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DESKBY 291200Z
Se
TO IMMEDIATE F.C.O TELNO.808 OF 29 JUNE 78,
LILL
Sa 48
(43
INFO IMMEDIATE: PEKING, LISBON.
(37
YOUR TELNO.115 TO LISBON HONG KONG AND MACAU,
1. SEEN FROM HERE, IT APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE PORTUGUESE
WILL OFFER TO HAND BACK MACAU DURING THEIR DISCUSSIONS ON ESTABLISHING DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH CHINA. CERTAINLY THERE ARE
NO INDICATIONS THAT THE PORTUGUESE AUTHORITIES IN MACAU EXPECT
THE GOVERNOR OF MACAU HAS THIS TO HAPPEN. QUITE THE CONTRARY. RECENTLY VISITED CHINA. MY POLITICAL ADVISER HAS SEEN HIM SINCE THEN AND HE SPOKE ABOUT THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS ESTABLISHING DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS AS A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR BUILDING CONFIDENCE IN MACAU. HE TOOK THE SAME BULLISH ATTITUDE IN SPEAKING AT THE PRESS CONFERENCE ON 26 JUNE WHEN HE SAID, INTER ALIA, IT IS HOPED THAT VERY SOON PORTUGAL AND CHINA WILL HAVE DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WHICH WILL REINFORCE THIS OPEN SQUARE BRACKETS MACAU'S
CLOSE SQUARE BRACKETS STABILITY''. THIS VIEW IS CONFIRMED BY ALL
WE HAVE PICKED UP NO OUR OTHER SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON MACAU.
WE CANNOT OF COURSE JUDGE WITH (REPEAT NO) HINTS OF ANXIETY. CERTAINTY FROM HERE WHETHER LISBON HAS INTENTIONS ABOUT MACAU WHICH ARE UNKNOWN LOCALLY, BUT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY.
2. SUBJECT TO PEKING'S VIEW,
I WOULD EXPECT THE CHINESE TO BRUSH ASIDE AN OFFER TO RETURN MACAU IF IT WAS MADE. THEY WOULD PROBABLY REPEAT THEIR VIEW THAT MACAU, LIKE HONG KONG, IS A PROBLEM TO BE SETTLED 'WHEN CONDITIONS ARE RIPE",
THE RETROCESSION OF MACAU IF IT OCCURED, WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE A VERY DAMAGING EFFECT ON CONFIDENCE HERE: CONSEQUENTLY IT WOULD RUN DIRECTLY COUNTER TO CHINA'S PRESENT POLICY OF MAXIMISING
I WOULD NOT, HOWEVER, THEIR ECONOMIC EARNINGS FROM HONG KONG.
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