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3. THIS IS, AS I SEE IT, A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE DOGMATISM AND XENOPHOBIA WHICH MARKED MOST OF THE LAST DECADE UNDER MAO. IT IS ALSO A MAJOR MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES OF EMPHASIS BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL CHINESE LEADERS AND THE STRAINS INHERENT IN ANY GREAT PLAN OF RAPID MODERNISATION, I WOULD JUDGE IT
I AS A POLICY LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED OVER A LONG PERIOD.
IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY TAKE LONGER THAN THE CHINESE AT
PRESENT THINK, BUT IT COULD EVENTUALLY ATTAIN A LARGE MEASURE OF SUCCESS AND THE LONGER IT IS PURSUED AND THE
MORE CHINA BECOMES INVOLVED IN THE MODERN WORLD THE MORE
DIFFICULT IT WOULD BE FOR THE PENDULUM TO SWING SUDDENLY
BACK.
THE NEW POLICY ENTAILS, AN INCREASED EMPHASIS ON FOREIGN
TRADE AND IS LIKELY TO MEAN GREATLY INCREASED IMPORTS OF ADVANCED EQUIPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY. OVER THE LAST FEW
MONTHS LARGE NUMBERS OF CHINESE HIGH-LEVEL MISSIONS HAVE
BEEN ENGAGED ABROAD IN THE NECESSARY RECONNAISSANCE WORK AND THE RESULTANT NEW WAVE OF FOREIGN CONTRACTS COULD BEGIN EARLY NEXT YEAR. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT PRECISELY TO WHAT THE CHINESE WILL GIVE PRIORITY, BUT IN HIS STATEMENT ON GOVERNMENT POLICY IN FEBRUARY, PREMIER HUA KUO-FENG REFERRED SPECIFICALLY TO PLANS TO BUILD OR COMPLETE BY 1985 TEN IRON AND STEEL COMPLEXES (MORE THAN MOUBLING STEEL PRODUCTION TO 60 MILLION TONS) NINE NON-FERROUS METAL COMPLEXES, EIGHT COAL MINES, TEN OIL AND GAS FIELDS, THIRTY POWER STATIONS, SIX NEW TRUNK RAILWAYS AND FIVE KEY HARBOURS. ii THEREFORE SEEMS PROBABLE THAT EARLY DECISIONS WILL BE MADE IN: IRON AND STEEL, COAL, PETROLEUM AND PETROCHEMICALS, POWER GENERATION AND TRANSPORT.
5. THE CHINESE HAVE ALREADY MADE THE BASIC AND, FOR THEM? PAINFUL STEP OF RELAXING THEIR ATTITUDE TO FOREIGN CREDIT 90 AS TO PERMIT THE MECESSARY PURCHASES. THEY SAY THEY ARE READY TO ADOPT ALL MODERN COMMERCIAL PRACTICES.
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6. THERE IS