CONFIDENTIAL
2
Feldman commented that when normalisation came, the Americans would ideally like to retain some military personnel, less than 100, on Taiwan. They would, of course, be completely "civilianised" even if they did occasionally address each other as "Major" or "Captain".
4. There is obviously a fairly strong suspicion in the Senate that the President may attempt normalisation soon. On 25 July,
at the instigation of Senators Dole and Goldwater, the Senate debated and passed without demur an amendment expressing "the sense of the Senate with respect to policy changes affecting the US/ROC Mutual Defense Treaty". The abrogation of the Defense Treaty is the central emotional issue in the normalisation process. I enclose a copy of the transcript of the debate. As you will see, the debate centered on the constitutional requirements: how can a Treaty be terminated? There are a number of schools of thought:
(a) that the Senate, which ratifies Treaties, must "unratify"
them;
(b) that since the Senate originally ratified a Treaty which
contains a clause allowing for termination with one year's notice, they have already given their consent to the Executive Branch terminating it;
(c) that the President has the right to terminate Treaties
on his own authority;
and
(d) that when the US has transferred recognition to Peking:
the Treaty will in any case lapse since it is not possible to have a Treaty with a non-existent government.
Feldman pointed out that although the constitutional lawyers (and people like "Professor" Goldwater) will have a field day, the constitutional questions are not the real issue. What it boils down to is a gut feeling on the party of many Senators that the US should not abandon a friend. If the Administration can arrive at a modus vivendi with Peking whereby a satisfactory defence relationship with Taiwan ie the ability to supply weapons is maintained after normalisation, the constitutional issues will fall away. But so long as there is debate on the question of normalisation, the red herring of constitutional issues will be dragged in.
5. Feldman mentioned that the Taiwanese were not taking signs of increasing US/Chinese contacts lying down. In recent months, they had redoubled their "invitation diplomacy". They had given up on the Administration, which they regard as a lost cause. But large numbers of State Senators, youth leaders and such luminaries as State Democratic Chairmen, were being sent to Taiwan and shown a good time as Taiwanese sponsored visitors. What effect this might have on Senate attitudes was unclear. You will also have noticed that there seems to have been a change in Taiwanese policy on withdrawing from capitals or conferences when representatives of
CONFIDENTIAL
/Peking