CONFIDENTIAL
SECTION IV:
STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS
DSR 11C
40. Within a decade or two, with a powerful industrial
base and large, more mechanised and better equipped
military forces, China will present a picture quite
different to that of the present day. It was argued in
paragraph 24 (c) that there would be political and
strategic advantage in seeking to influence her attitudes
to the West and hence her foreign policy by working
towards closer economic and political relations rather
than by promoting Chinese isolation. Experience with
the Soviet Union suggests that economic links are of
great importance. It is already government policy in all
Western countries to allow - and in all countries but
one (the US) actively to promote the sale of advanced
civil technology and equipment to the Russians, despite
the far greater military and political threat they pose
to the West. There are critics of this policy, among
them the Chinese. It is generally recognised that the
Soviet Union has been able to improve its economic
performance, including its defence effort, by the acquisition
of Western technology and equipment. At the same time,
Soviet technological dependence on the West and the trade
which results from it are a constraint on Soviet behaviour
towards the West. Similar advantages could be expected
to derive from non-military trade with China. Even in
the more distant future, the West can expect to maintain
its technological lead, and the Chinese will (like the
Soviet Union) continue to seek Western assistance. This
should increaes her practical interest in co-operating in
certain areas of international affairs.
/41.
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