CONFIDENTIAL
DSR 11C
in Asia and the Third World generally.
Although now
more confident of themselves, the Indians, who still
claim territory occupied by the Chinese, will continue
to be concerned about Chinese military capabilities.
This will in turn continue to give the Soviet Union
influence in Delhi. But China is unlikely to take
military action against India unless India pursues a
forward policy on the border again as she did in 1962.
Meanwhile, China will continue to attach importance to
her alliance with Pakistan.
(i) Africa
21. In 1963 Chou En-lai pronounced Africa "ripe for
revolution". At least by Chinese standards of revolution,
his prophecy has hardly been fulfilled. Nowadays, the
prime concern of the Chinese in Africa, as elsewhere,
is to counter Soviet influence. They have given a good
deal of economic aid to Tanzania, most notably the
Tanzan railway, and have run training camps there; but
their general role has been less obtrusive than that of
their Soviet rivals. Although eclipsed by the Russians
in Angola and Ethiopia, they have so far shown no sign
of stepping up their own African activities in consequence.
They lack comparable resources, or may prefer to play the
game more slowly.
(j)
22.
Chinese political influence world-wide
In relations with the Third World and the West, an
important role has been played by the Chinese view of
communism, which they see as fundamentally different from
that of the Soviet Union. The latter, in the Chinese
/view
CONFIDENTIAL
D 107991 400,000 7/76 904 953