equipment would pose fewer problems than aircraft, but there would still be difficulties eg over Taiwaǹ.
8=
In considering therreaction to the possible sale of
Harrier, the Americans would wish to examine at least the following areas:-
a)
b)
The strategic effect on the strengthening of
the Chinese military position vis-a-vis the
Russians.
The effect on the Super-Power relationships and
detente of overt American acquiescence in a major re-inforcement of China's military strength along the border with the Soviet Union (the most likely area for deployment).
The consequences for Taiwan and South Korea.
c)
d)
Likely reactions in Japan, as well as South Korea
and Taiwan.
e)
The implications for the future of COCOM and of
the existence of a co-ordinated Western attitude
to arms sales to China.
f)
The effect on the US holding of Harriers.
g)
The ultimate effect on the Chinese capability for
armament manufacture.
h)
The possibility of transfer to third parties.
i)
Likely reactions from other important countries
such as India, Australia and New Zealand.
j)
The effect upon American policy of conventional
arms transfers.
reaction
9.
Having considered their setion the Americans would have
a number of ways of bring pressure to bear on us including:-
a) As The Americans have helped in the development of
some versions of the Harrier and its equipment they could go to veto sale of this know-how.
and
any
J
/b) Threats