report, when it is now heavily engaged in examining various policies and procedures, would disrupt its work programme. The Advisory Committee is aware, however, of the need to seek informed comment from industrial and commercial organisations and decided early on that it would do so at the appropriate time. Indeed, some contacts have already been made.
(9)
42.
Interventionism versus non-interventionism
(a) General
Fundamentally, those who argue for government direction, as opposed to general help and advice, must show that it is possible for the Government, or a body appointed by it, to forecast the pattern of demand in our overseas markets, to determine what share of that demand it would be
appropriate for Hong Kong's industry to try to meet, and then to persuade our industrialists and exporters to base their commercial decisions on these forecasts and calculations (and notwithstanding their own views as to where their most profitable opportunities lie). Yet how can any Government body, no matter what its composition, determine in the abstract what will be the potential demand in our overseas markets for products of interest to us? Surely we can do no better than leave individual businessmen, with their intimate knowledge of overseas markets, to follow their homing instinct for profits.
43.
Whilst, of course, as Chairman of the Advisory Committee on Diversification, I must keep an open mind, I might also add that I do not believe that the experience of
some of our competing neighbours is necessarily relevant to us. I would remind Mr. Lee (and Mr. James Wu) that those governments which have been successful in directing the pattern of industrial development in their countries have had substantial protected domestic markets on which to base their direction and, through their interference with the price mechanism, to finance hidden
costs and even losses. In Hong Kong, losses would have to be
23
/financed
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