31

PS/Mr Rowlands

CONFIDENTIAL

HKG 025/2

RECEIVE

23 FEB 1978

DESK OFFICIA

INDEX

0.51

REGISTRY CTRL

|

in Stowage for

to see

33

R. on HICG 029/2

Pool Bulate in Quill (cr)

PA

N2

JJ.

BRITAIN'S OTHER FOREIGN POLICY

в

82173

1. I have read these notes with much interest and agree with most of what Mr Rowlands says.

following comments:-

I would however make the

a. Page 6. An Overview?

b.

C.

It seems to me that each territory and

its problems are so different that they have to be treated

separately. Thus I am against attempting to generalise or categorise. If Ministers want a White Paper I think that the general section should be brief and not attempt to produce any grandiose policy options. It should rather highlight some general problems on the lines of Mr Rowlands' analysis

and go on to discuss each territory in turn analysing the

issues it faces and the options for it.

Page 8.

(i)

(ii)

Options for Berlize. There are surely three options:-

Status quo, with a probable deterioration in the

security situation in the long run and an increasing

drain on us;

Independence with a defence guarantee. Ministers have

rejected a unilateral guarantee as too costly. An

international one only makes sense, if the US were to

back it and they won't.

(iii) A negotiated settlement involving concessions to

Guatemala.

(iii) is really the only option with any prospect of relieving the drain on us. The question as I see it is, can we get better terms by waiting for increasing international pressure leading the Guatemalans to reduce their demands still further? Our assessment has been that the next Guatemalan Government (due in office on 1 July) will be more demanding. Time could

thus be running out.

Page 9, para (c). Mr Rowlamus is presumably thinking here of a

link between the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

But I

CONFIDENTÁT.

Share This Page