C.S. 166
CONFIDENTIAL ##
XCC(77) 14
4
2
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The table which follows shows the outstanding positions as it should develop over the next five years provided the land production programme keeps pace with resumptions as it should- and also assum- ing that 30% of the land available is made available for disposal by the normal sale processes of auction or tender. The table also assumes that holders of less valuable exchange entitlements will accept low density residential land in exchange for which lower premiums are payable. The table expresses the amount of land to be resumed in terms of building land to be granted at a ratio of 5:2. Thus, for example, in 1978 some ten to eleven million square feet of agricultural land will have to be resumed:
Estimated land
to be resumed
(Million s. f.) Building land equivalent
Estimated land available for exchanges
(Million s.f.) Building land equivalent
Estimated com- mitment at end of year
(Million s. f.) Building land equivalent
1977
5.60
1978
5.50
4.05
7.05
1979
3
4.05
6.45
1980
3
3. 15
6.30
1981
3
3.33
5.97
1982
3
3. 15
5.82
Future of exchange system
5
The table shows that in spite of a very heavy resumption programme it should be possible to maintain a good turnover of the exchange entitlements during the next five years. During the period beyond that, a very large proportion of the major resumptions for the New Towns will have been completed, and the resumptions and clearances now in hand should have produced greater areas of Crown land available for disposal. Moreover, although in some cases the application by holders of the older exchange entitlements for the more valuable sites may result in the premia received (which is assessed as at the date the surrender of the land from which the entitlements derive) being well below the current market value, in general the overall financial return on exchanges should improve as the interval between surrenders and exchanges is reduced.
6
The success of the exchange system has been demonstrated by the fact that in sixteen years of use virtually all the resumptions in the New Territories have proceeded without major incident. This is because the system has, up to now, been acceptable to those affected,
CONFIDENTIAL
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