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discussion in the 1977 International Labour Conference and the outcome there is likely to be of crucial importance to the continued membership of the United States.
6. During reccnt months the United States has been making intensive efforts to explain to member contries in the developing world, and thereby help to secure, the conditions which would enable them to remain in membership of the ILO. Their ILO representative (Mr Horowitz) has made three major tours of deve- loping countries in Asia, Latin America and Central and Southern Africa to make direct contact with authorities in capitals. Our impression is that the United States visits have generally been received in a spirit of appreciation and understanding; and that reflection on the effects of US withdrawal has had a sobering influence on the attitude of developing countries represented on the Governing Body. Their acceptance of suspension of the structure discussions was surprisingly passive and in marked contrast to the vociferous protests on the failure to make progress in 1975 and 1976. The growing awareness by governments of the sensitivity of the US position was further sharpened by the US refusal to participate in the discussion of the ILO's Programme and Budget for 1978/79. However, the stiffest test is yet to come, in the wider forum of the 1977 conference where the balance of membership and voting power so heavily favours the developing countries and where, unlike the Governing Body, there is no provision for secret ballots.
7. Further attempts to gauge the US reaction to developments to date provide grounds for no more than cautious optimism. The new Administration have been at pains to associate themselves with the policy they inherited. Our impression is that in any reasonable comparison of achievement against objective the balance so far must be a favourable one. But it is clear that a final, formal, recommendation will not be made by the Cabinet level committee (which is supervising UIS activities during the period of the notice) until after the 1977 Conference.
8. The structure discussions pose a special problem for the United Kingdom which qualifies under the present constitution for a permanent (ie non-elective) seat on the Governing Body as one of the 10 countries of chief industrial importance. The developing countries are opposed to the concept of permanent seats on this basis and there is a good deal of sympathy for the view that the strongly entrenched position of the highly industrialised countries and the consequent European bias implicit in the present constitution does not adequately reflect the changing interests of the present day membership. The strength of this feeling, despite the present show of moderation, is unlikely to be restrained indefinitely and the search for some way of accommodating it may well face the United Kingdom with an uncomfortable choice.
3.
19.