CONFIDENTIAL # 2
XCS(77)2
(G) to comment briefly on the possibility of enfranchising
both CLP and the Hongkong Electric Company Limited.
(A) Recent Developments
5
In October 1975, the Chairman of CLP informally gave the Financial Secretary an indication of the factors he considered would have a bearing on the renegotiation of a Scheme of Control. In February 197€ he submitted in writing some ideas on the possible forms of a new Scheme. It was agreed in March 1970 that, because of the large capital commitment that CLP would have to enter into in 1977, informal dis- cussions should start as soon as possible.
Ε
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The ensuing discussions covered a full study of the likely expansion of CLP for the next 10 years or so and involved collating information on demand for electricity, analysing price movements, adopting agreed assumptions about likely future price changes, estą- blishing CLP's future requirements for plant and examining possible ways of financing expansion.
(B) Expansion of generating Capacity
7
Demand
Despite the numerous factors involved in estimating future demand for electricity (e.g. population growth, gross domestic product, industrial growth and changes, housing developments), Government and CLP, working independently and using the different methods set out in Annex D, have arrived at forecasts close enough to confirm the use of CLF's medium forecast for purposes of assessing future plant require-! ments and revenue estimates. For the purpose of this forecast (pre- sented below), units generated (expressed in millions of kilowatt hours) represent the amount of electricity which is needed to meet demand for a whole year, and maximum demand (expressed in megawatts) represents the maximum requirement at any one time during a year:
CLP's medium forecast Units generated
Financial
Million
%
Maximum demand
MW
%
year
units
Growth
Growth
1977
6419
8.8
1328
7.8
1978
6936
8.1
1428
7.5
1979
7493
8.0
1535
7.5
1980
8092
8.0
1653
7.7
1981
8725
7.9
1783
7.9
1982
9424
7.9
1924
7.9
1983
10156
7.8
2074
7.9
1984
10894
7.3
2225
7.8
1985
11638
€.8
2377
7.3
1980
12404
3.6
2533
6.8
1987
13190
6.3
2693
3.€
C.S. 166
CONFIDENTIAL ##