C.S. 41A

alry

布政司署

香港下亞厘畢道

*** Our Ref.:

CR 4/4576/75

來函檔號 Youn REF.:

Dear Adrian

GOVERNMENT SECRETARIAT

LOWER ALBERT ROAD

HKD

HONG KONG

3 February 1977

MARCH

сай НКО, до

in Cullen, ES

+

Dept of Eneasy

Thank you for asking the Department of Energy about fuel prices on our behalf and sending us their reply which was helpful.

Unfortunately having shed light on our problem it has also illuminated other difficulties. In particular one of the power companies is trying to argue the merits of coal and base their thesis on a world view of likely energy supplies. They are arguing that oil will cease to be the price leader for fuel because the balance of supply and demand in the 1990's will result in oil being so scarce that it will almost cease to be a fuel and will be primarily a source of petro chemicals. The price of coal would then be set by the overall demand and supply of fuels excluding oil and the relative peculiarities of coal. This of course suggests a high price for coal but a fall in the coal to oil price ratio.

None of this is written expecting a response but as illus- trative of our need for general briefing material so that we can be involved in a partially informed rather than totally ignorant way. There is mention in the letter of the Berrill group's conclusions and I know Mike Beenstock was involved in producing something. I wonder what the chances are of seeing some of this or failing that we would welcome your critical opinion of the various published

sources.

hear.

Looking forward to seeing you in the steaming

Yours

Dand

(David Stanton)

AS

Mr Adrian Smith

Senior Economic Adviser

Foreign and Commonwealth Office

LONDON SW1A 2AH

England

A

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