о
6
Taking one standard error on either side of the medium forecast means that there is a 60% chance of the
true elasticity being within this range.
Table 1 Government Forecasts
Medium
Low
High
Year
Sales
Growth Sales Growth
Sales % Growth
Million
Units
Million Units
Million
Units
1977 5,775
12.5
5,599 11.0
5,775
12.5
1978 6,295
9.0
6,047
8.0
6,353
10.0
1979 6,862
9.0
6,351 8.0
6,988
10.0
1980 7,479
9.0
7,053
8.0
7,687
10.0
1981 8,152
9.0
7,618
8.0
8,456
10.0
1982 8,886
9.0
8,227
8.0
9,301
10.0
1983 9,685
9.0
8,885
8.0
10,231
10.0
1984 10,387
7.3
9,462
6.5
11,050
8.0
1985 11,140
7.3
10,078
6.5
11,934
8.0
1986 11,753
5.5
10,582
5.0
12,650
6.0
CLP's Forecasts
(a) Basic Approach
CLP, having looked at several methods of forecasting, including regression analysis, the Gompertz curve method which uses a simple time trend and various mathematical equations, based their eventual forecasts on the Aoki method of aligning generation per head with GDP per head.
Their comments on and forecasting derived from this
approach are set out below.