(c)
3.
e.g. if the population grew by 2% and GDP by the same amount, the demand for electricity, other things being constant, would rise by 2%; but if a 2% growth in
GDP were associated with no growth in population it would be reasonable to
expect the demand for electricity to grow
by more than 2%.
Using per capita statistics ensures that this population growth/demand growth relationship is imposed; but because the argument has greater application for
domestic than industrial demand it was decided to try
total statistics as well.
For both sets of statistics logarithmic and linear
equations were tried, to determine the most appropriate
equation.
An important feature of the equation is the size
of the co-efficient in GDP, that is to say the rate at which demand for electricity grows in relation to the
growth in GDP. It is noticeably higher for Hong Kọng (1.75) than for other countries (normally between 1.0 &
1.5) thus reflecting the significance of electricity as
a source of power for Hong Kong.
1
Assumptions built into forecasts
The next step was to extrapolate GDP, the real
price of electricity and the growth in population to
produce a forecast of electricity sales.