CONFIDENTIAL
2200
HKK 121
1/616/1
300
Stewart
Mr J A B Stewart
HONG KONG AND THE MULTI-FIBRE AGREEMENT
1. I have discussed these figures with Mr Thompson and with Mr Hull. We can none of us imagine how Mr Duffy arrived at a figure of 0.77 percentage points: it can only have been an error of calculation, which is a pity since, of course, it weakens our position in challenging the Governor's figures if we cannot get our own figures right.
2. I am in any case far from convinced that, because there is an overall relationship between GDP and exports, it necessarily fellows that a minor variation in one (and after all we are only talking in terms of a single percentage point) automatically prods an equal change in the other. The reduction in exports could, for example, be reflected in an increase in stocks, in a diversion of resources to other expert fields, or indeed to domestic consumption throuɗto such sectors as construction. All these possibilities would mean that GDP would not automat- ically fall to the same extent as the drop in experts.
Mr Hull, however (to whose superior knowledge on such subjects I must bow) believes that we cannot legitimately challenge the Governor's argument on these grounds: the figures de show a co-relationship which must therefore be assumed to apply in detail as well as to the overall figure.
3.
The attached draft telegram represents the joint efferts of Mr Thompson, Mr Hull and myself.
No Thompson to see den P.A.
༡༽༄༡‧
W. E. Chantill
W Quantrill
28 September 1977
Hong Kong & General Dept
w Quentmill
with
aughtill/ Thank you. I agree completely
our pare 2. However as (unfortunately)
you
oment on these lines
we started the argoment-on
we must so conclude it. It is all rather
The tel has issued
nitpicking. The feels