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5. I am not quite happy about the analysis you have
presented of the effects of a cutback to the levels presented
by Tran.
This is a matter for the economists and ours
At fanal we can fea,
believe that the reduction in Hong Kong's GDP growth would
be of the order of 0.8% rather than 1.5%. Moreover, I have
every confidence in the ability of Hong Kong textile industry
to find some other markets, particularly in the developing
I have to tell you tear word. In any case, Ministers in the UK will certainly not be disposed to accept that Hong Kong's social programmes, to which they attach great importance, will really be put in
jeopardy.
6.
Naturally UK Ministers attach the greatest importance
to the China Light and Power package deal and to the Mass
Transit Railway Extension. However I do not see why a
Community action on textiles, which the UK has effectively
chance of! little to affectigin
to/
in a major way should cause the Board
look skewhere than to tho v.n.
members concerned to turn their contracts away from the UK.
made
I think they should be
should be fewere of the true position within
the Community.
Naiter
for me
7. Both the Commission and I do not think Hong Kong has
much to fear from the effect which a tough bilateral with
the Community will have on the Hong Kong/US Textile Agreement.
The Commission have already told the Americans that any
downward revision of the Hong Kong/US Agreement would
inevitably lead to a similar revision of the Hong Kong/EEC
Agreement. The Americans certainly wish to avoid such a
downward spiral, just as they will not want to risk the
repercussions on the GATT MTNS of unilateral Community
action of the sort described in para 4.above. I believe
Similar /-that
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