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number of suppliers. Hong Kong is the largest of these and must, therefore, bear the brunt in the form of reduced access in order to leave room for other suppliers to continue to grow.
21
This simplistic approach conveniently denies certain fundamental truths:
22
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
Forthe seven sensitive products in which Hong Kong has significant performance, annual growth rates in limits overall in the current agreement have been of the order of 2.5 per cent for five of them and 7 per cent for the other two.
For the UK market, the largest and apparently most sensitive at present, these growth rates have only been one-half of one per cent for six items and three and a half per cent for the others,
EEC imports of these products from Hong Kong have in every case declined since the current agreement was signed in 1975. 1976 imports were lower than 1975, and 1977 imports are almost certain to be even lower judging by the current substantial decline in our export figures.
On the latest EEC import figures available (1976) the surge in imports into Member States has been substantially in intra-EEC trade, suggesting that unemployment and plant closures to some extent are due to efficient EEC suppliers driving out inefficient ones.
Much of the remaining increase in imports came from countries (notably in the Mediterranean area) with whom the EEC has preferential arrangements, and, until recently, little or no restrictions,
It is manifestly unreasonable in these circumstances that Hong Kong should suffer a sharp reduction in established EEC market access rights. The consequences, economic and social, could bear far more heavily on this community, with its heavy dependence on textile and clothing exports, than on the Member States being protected (not that this would be a telling point to make to the EEC, given the largely political basis of their position).
Conclusion
23
The dangers of reduced export earnings, damaging prece- dents and a possible trigger to the 'disintegration of international trade' envisaged by Mr. Long are quite obvious. What.first_needs to
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