2.
CONFIDENTIAL
I fear the failure to attempt to draft one is resulting in incorrect assertions being accepted as gospel in Whitehall with consequent room for misrepresentation of Hong Kong's position.
4. written
Let me give you an example. You have .there will have to be some reduction in
growth levels. I do not think it is reasonable or possible for the Community's industry to be expected to continue to stand current growth rates". I wonder if you know that Hong Kong's trade in quota items is not growing but declining? The position is set out in Table C
attached in which the categories in which trade has declined are underlined in red.
5.
Mr. Meacher put a good deal of emphasis on another type of growth: growth in quotas. Table A attached shows the restraint limit and growth rates for Hong Kong, and Table B has comparable figures for South Korea. On these I have underlined in red those growth rates for the UK and Germany (Hong Kong's principal markets in the EEC) that are already below 6%. In only a few categories where the quantities are relatively small do we have 6% or more.
I have also underlined the categories where growth for the Community as a whole is less than 6%.
6.
In the columns for other member states there are of course some very high growth rates, and I have underlined in blue those that are over 20%. But here I must emphasise that these rates cannot be blamed on the MFA. Both the very high and the very low derive from the EEC burden-sharing formula. Moreover you will notice that the very high rates are attached to pretty small quotas, so that in actual quantities they don't mean much. The highest go to France and Ireland which had previously held down imports by unilateral import restrictions.
7.
I can face with some degree of equanimity the possibility of the UK and Hong Kong coming into public collision where the facts are agreed but the interests are different. This kind of situation is inevitable from time to time and should not rub off too much on UK/Hong Kong relations. But I am dismayed by the prospect of a situation of public confrontation in which HMG has refused to even discuss the facts and in which I believe the outcome is likely to be as bad for United Kingdom interests as for Hong Kong.
8.
I do suggest that all this should be put urgently to Ministers on the basis of the critique we gave you before it is too late and the whole matter has to be thrashed out in public in Geneva as Carey envisages.
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