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IN 1974-75 FALLING TO 5% IN 1975-76 AND RECOVERING TO 15% IN 1976-77 (REVISED ESTIMATE). CAPITAL REVENUE AVERAGED DOLLARS 439 MILLION IN THE FIRST THREE YEARS OF THE PERIOD I AM CONSIDERING, RISING SHARPLY TO DOLLARS 689 MILLION IN 1976-77 (REVISED ESTIMATE) AS THE RECOVERY AFFECTED LAND PRICES.
(3) FORECAST OF REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE, 1977-78 TO 1980-81
(A) INTRODUCTION
86. IT IS AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND THAT I NOW WISH TO CONSIDER THE
FORECAST OF REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE FOR THE COMING FOUR YEARS
PREPARED BY THE FINANCE BRANCH IN THE AUTUMN OF 1976 ON THE BASIS OF
RETURNS SUBMITTED BY DEPARTMENTS AT THE END OF JUNE.
(B) METHOD OF COMPILATION
87. THE FORECAST OF RECURRENT REVENUE WAS BASED ON EXISTING TAX
RATES AND CHARGES AND ASSUMED GROWTH RATES AND WAS EXPRESSED IN
TERMS OF 1976 VALUES, CAPITAL REVENUE ACCRUES MAINLY FROM LAND
SALES BUT, AS IT HAS NOT YET PROVED POSSIBLE TO DEVISE A LONG TERM LAND PRODUCTION PROGRAMME, ARBITRARY ASSUMPTIONS HAD TO BE
MADE FOR SALES PROCEEDS BASED ON SUCH INFORMATION AS WAS AVAILABLE.
88. FOR THE PURPOSE OF FORECASTING EXPENDITURE (AT 1976 PRICES) DEPARTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO SUBMIT RETURNS WHICH DISTINGUISHED BETWEEN, ON THE ONE HAND, UNAVOIDABLE COMMITMENTS IN RESPECT OF MAINTAINING PRESENT SERVICES, EXPANDING THEM TO MEET DEMAND AT EXISTING STANDARDS AND EXTENDING THEM WITHIN APPROVED POLICIES WHERE TIMING HAD BEEN SPECIFICALLY AGREED: AND, ON THE OTHER HAND, NEW SERVICES BUT, IN THE NATURE OF THINGS, THERE ARE BOUND TO BE OTHER NEW SERVICES FED INTO THE SYSTEM (NEXT WORD UNDERLINED) DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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/ 89. THE FIGURES