1
VUNTIUMT HLAD
DSR 11C
China, and even bring her to cooperate more in
international affairs eg economic, arms control.
Against this, however:
13.
(a)
As China becomes stronger and feels less
vulnerable militarily both in conventional terms
2
·
and with the development of her strategic nuclear
capability
-
her greater self-confidence vis-à-vis
the Soviet Union could lead her to attach less
importance to good relations with the West or to
stability in Asia.
(b) It is almost inevitable that so large a country
as China with an ideology alien to most of her
neighbours would, if she acquired the military
capability to overwhelm them, be seen by them as a
serious threat. They would see a need to protect
themselves. So long as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
can confidently rely on the United States, they will
feel uneasy but not over-alarmed by China's military
development. To the extent that the US commitment to
their defence is in doubt and over the next twenty
years it may increasingly be so for Japan, let alone
the other two they will seek alternative arrangement
Sta
if they can. For Japan this could lead to a
considerable increase in defence expenditure and mili-
tary capability and the development of Japan as a
regional power. This would not necessarily be
undesirable. It could also lead to an increase in
Soviet influence among China's other neighbours (eg
among ASEAN countries).
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