CONFIDENTIAL
DSR LIC
significantly increase China's offensive and long
range capability or create a qualitative jump on the
one hand, and lower level technology and defensive
equipment on the other. They can be expected to oppose sales of the former. (This would in any case be in line
with President Carter's policy on the restraint of
conventional arms transfers.) On the latter they may
be divided counsels.
no
Some Americans may argue in favour
of arms sales as a means of strengthening China against
the Soviet Union. Others will resist on traditional
grounds or on the grounds that such sales might upset
East/West or US/Soviet relations. Many would probably
object to the sale of factories and know-how in the
armaments field - this too is part of President Carter's
The policy on conventional arms transfer limitations.
final US position is therefore difficult to predict, but
they are likely not to object to some sales.
20.
Of Britain's other Alliance partners, Germany and
France would probably not oppose British sales of
military technology and equipment to China.
The French
in particular would be likely, on political grounds, to
encourage such sales, thus easing the path for themselves. The difficulty with the French might indeed be to restrain
them from selling equipment of the kind which the UK
would rather see withheld, either because of the strategic implications or because of COCOM considerations. The need to keep the French within the rules of the game
and thus maintain the game itself would in itself be
an argument for permitting some defence sales.
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