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DSR LIC

significantly increase China's offensive and long

range capability or create a qualitative jump on the

one hand, and lower level technology and defensive

equipment on the other. They can be expected to oppose sales of the former. (This would in any case be in line

with President Carter's policy on the restraint of

conventional arms transfers.) On the latter they may

be divided counsels.

no

Some Americans may argue in favour

of arms sales as a means of strengthening China against

the Soviet Union. Others will resist on traditional

grounds or on the grounds that such sales might upset

East/West or US/Soviet relations. Many would probably

object to the sale of factories and know-how in the

armaments field - this too is part of President Carter's

The policy on conventional arms transfer limitations.

final US position is therefore difficult to predict, but

they are likely not to object to some sales.

20.

Of Britain's other Alliance partners, Germany and

France would probably not oppose British sales of

military technology and equipment to China.

The French

in particular would be likely, on political grounds, to

encourage such sales, thus easing the path for themselves. The difficulty with the French might indeed be to restrain

them from selling equipment of the kind which the UK

would rather see withheld, either because of the strategic implications or because of COCOM considerations. The need to keep the French within the rules of the game

and thus maintain the game itself would in itself be

an argument for permitting some defence sales.

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