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DSR 11C
would undermine, let alone destroy, the system.
Japanese participation in COCOM is important and it
would not be possible to obtain Japanese agreement to
the exclusion of China from COCOM rules. The attitudes
of the US and China's neighbours are therefore important
in the consideration of possible arms sales
18. The American attitude in particular would be
crucial.
The UK self-evidently has far more at stake
in the US in political, defence, economic and commercial
terms than any possible gain in China. Even in the
limited field of defence sales, the US market is far more
important than the Chinese.
19. The US Administration's assessment of the broad
strategic considerations surrounding arms sales is
likely to be similar to that set out in this paper.
For historical and emotional reasons, particularly
connected with Taiwan, American public and congressional
opinion is likely to lag behind the Administration.
Nevertheless, even public opinion has eased in recent
years. Even though the Americans themselves will not,
for the foreseeable future, feel in a position to sell
arms to China, they are likely not to oppose all sales
from other Western countries. Dr Kissinger has already
set a precedent by helping the British Government to
put the Spey engine sale through COCOM. But the
Americans are likely to draw a distinction between
advanced technology and offensive weapons which would
/significantly
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