CONFIDENTIAL
DSR 11C
(b) defence sales would be much less important
as a factor in increasing China's standing and
influence as a world (rather than as a regional)
'power than the sale of civil industrial technology
and equipment;
(c) nevertheless, the sale of certain items of
military technology or equipment could
significantly promote China's offensive
capability against her neighbours;
(d) but the withholding of all military sales
would in many fields do no more than delay the
development of China's military capability;
(e) the Chinese will for some time be more pre-
occupied with their domestic economic and political
affairs than with foreign policy;
(f) over the same period the Sino-Soviet dispute
should continue to keep China interested in
promoting amicable relations with her other
neighbours;
(g) in any case, US policy will be the main
factor in determining whether China could present
a credible military threat to, at least, Japan,
Taiwan and South Korea;
CONFIDENTIAL
/(h)
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