CONFIDENTIAL
DSR 11C
5. China has recently demonstrated particular
interest in obtaining further Western European assistance
in the defence field. There have been a number of recent
visits and expressions of willingness to purchase
military equipment. This primarily reflects China's
needs to improve her military capability vis-à-vis the
Soviet Union. Chinese equipment, based for the most
part on old Soviet models, is from ten to twenty
years out of date. It is true that China's nuclear
capability, the size of her army and the difficulty of
the terrain make a successful Soviet attack very unlikely.
Nevertheless, Chinese leaders have made it clear that
they are giving high priority to modernising the
equipment of the Chinese armed forces. Given their
ambitions on the civil side as well, they will probably
be reluctant to increase the proportion of Chinese
Gross National Product devoted to defence. Their aim
appears to be to procure advanced Western military equipment and, especially, technology in a number of key
sectors.
6. China has recently expressed interest in two
sensitive items of defence equipment from the UK,
Harriers, and Rolls Royce marine turbines.
The Chinese
have so far not given any reliable information on how
many of either they want. On optimistic assumptions,
the deals could amount to as much as £500 m and
include numbers of aircraft, engines etc. The actual
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