CONFIDENTIAL.
5. OUR RECORDS SHOW THAT IN THE FIVE YEARS FROM 1971 TO 1975, FOUR RUSSIAN SHIPS ON THE MINISTRY OF DEFENCE LIST WERE GIVEN PERMISSION TO VISIT HONG KONG FOR ONE REASON OR ANOTHER (INCLUDING HUMANITARIAN). THESE VISITS ARE HOWEVER MUCH MORE SENSITIVE SINCE THE SECRETARY OF STATE'S ASSURANCE TO THE CHINESE IN 1976.
E. A PROBLEM REMAINS OF THE TACTICS IN CONVEYING THE DECISION TO THE RUSSIANS THAT WE DO NOT WANT THIS RESEARCH VESSEL IN HONG KONG AND OF DEALING WITH ENQUIRIES FROM THE ROYAL SOCIETY. THE KUPO SIWO CURRENT FLOWS CLOCKWISE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE SOUTH UPWARDS TO THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES VIA THE EAST SIDE OF TAIWAN AND PROCEEDS UP TO JAPAN BETWEEN TAIWAN AND OKINAWA. IT DOES NOT ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE PORTS WHICH ONE WOULD EXPECT TO BE MOST CONVENIENT FOR A STUDY OF THE CURRENT WOULD
APPEAR TO LIE IN JAPAN (INCLUDING OKINAWA), TAIWAN AND THE PHILIPPINES. HONG KONG LIES SOME 600-800 KILOMETRES FROM THE SEA
AREA IN QUESTION AND DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY APPEAR TO BE A NECESSARY
PORT OF CALL, UNLESS THE RUSSIANS HAVE ULTERIOR MOTIVES.
7. IF YOU RETURN A QUICK ANSWER TO THE SOVIET EMBASSY, WE WOULD
EXPECT FURTHER PRESSURE TO BE BROUGHT TO BEAR VIA SCIENTISTS IN
THE ROYAL SOCIETY. IF YOU FEEL YOU HAVE SUFFICIENT AMMUNITION
FROM THE ABOVE TO PERSUADE THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF THE WISDOM OF KEEPING THE SOVIET VESSEL AWAY FROM HONG KONG, WITHOUT EMBARASSMENT
TO U.K INTERESTS, THERE WOULD BE MERIT IN TELLING THE RUSSIANS NOW THAT THE VISIT WILL NOT BE CONVENIENT' FOLLOWING THE FORMULA OF THE PAST. OTHERWISE, YOU MAY WISH TO CONSIDER DEFERRING THE NEWS UNTIL THREE OR FOUR WEEKS BEFORE THE VESSEL EXPECTS TO COME, THUS MINIMISING THE TIME FOR SOVIET MISCHIEF.
MACLEHOSE
FILES
HK & GD (5)
EE3D
FED
M & GD
CAD
STO
ΝΤΟ
MVD
PUSD
FS/LORD GORONWY-ROBERTS
MA MURRAY
-2- CONFIDENTIAL