TRADE IN 1978, THE UNDERLYING CONDITIONS FOR MORE RAPID GROWTH IN OUR DOMESTIC EXPORTS COULD BE PRESENT, AT LEAST FOR THE WIDE FIELD OF ITEMS (FOLLOWING WORD UNDERLINED) NOT SINGLED OUT FO
DISCRIMINATORY TREATMENT BY THE E.E.C. AND LET US REMEMBER THESE
ACCOUNTED FOR 90 PERCENT OF OUR TOTAL DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE
WORLD AS A WHOLE IN 1976.
THE PUBLIC FINANCES.
21. IN SPITE OF SOME UNEXPECTED FEATURES IN TTHE ECONOMIC SITUATION
I HAVE DESCRIBED FOR THIS YEAR, IT IS BROADLY THAT PREDICTED BY THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY IN HIS BUDGET SPEECH. WITH REGARD TO THE PUBLIC FINANCES, WE EXPECT THAT THIS YEARS TOTAL EXPENDITURE WILL
BE ABOUT DOLLARS 100 (100) MILLION HIGHER THAN THE ORIGINAL
ESTIMATE OF DOLLARS 8,245 (8,245) MZLLION. ON RECURRENT ACCOUNT
THIS PROJECTION ALLOWS FOR ADDITIONAL EXPENDITURE ON THE PUBLIC
SERVICE AS A RESULT OF THE 1977 SALARIES REVISION, AND SOME
OTHER PLUSSES AND MINUSES, ON CAPITAL ACCOUNT THERE IS NO REASON
TO BELIEVE THAT THE ESTIMATE WILL REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT REVISION.
22.
SUBJECT TO ALL THE RESERVATIONS THAT MUST BE MADE AT THIS
EARLY STAGE OF THE FINANCIAL YEAR, WE SHALL PROBABLY FINISH UP
WITH A SLIGHTLY LARGER SURPLUS THAN THAT PREDICTED BY THE FINANCIAL
SECRETARY.
SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL POSITION.
23. SO OUR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL POSITIONS (FOLLOWING WORD UNDERLINED) THIS YEAR ARE GENERALLY GOOD: NOT AS GOOD AS LAST YEAR AND WITH UNEVEN PATCHES OF LIGHT AND SHADE, BUT ! REPEAT
GENERALLY GOOD. THOUGH WORRYING UNCERTAINTIES OVERSHADOW OUR
ASSESSMENT OF NEXT YEAR'S PROSPECTS, OVER A VERY WIDE FIELD THESE TOO ARE REASONABLY GOOD, BUT A PROPER ASSESSMENT IS IMPOSSIBLE UNTIL THE OUTCOME OF THE E.E.C NEGOTIATION IS KNOWN, AND WE HAVE A CLEARER IDEA OF WHETHER AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
MAJOR ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD WILL BE STIMULATED BY NEW ECONOMIC
POLICIES.
MACLEHOSE
FILE S HK & GD (5)
OLA
ECONOMISTS D
EID (E)
F
PS/LORD GORONWY ROBERTS
MR CORTAZZI MR MURRAY
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