1.
(3)+(4)
5
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Reference......................................
Mr Jasper Munity bla
SEYCHELLES:
THE OVERTHROW OF MR MANCHAM
Please see my minute of 10 June and Mr Stanley's of the same date. You will see that Mr Cortazzi has agreed with Mr Stanley's suggestion that we ought to make a more considered analysis of what has happened in Seychelles, perhaps with particular reference to the Caribbean, and that HKGD and EAD should consult in the first instance once more is known about the coup in Seychelles.
2. My object when writing my minute was not to suggest that recent developments in Seychelles should be examined with a view to deciding whether they hold any lessons for other dependent territories expected to proceed to independence. It was rather to show what clever chaps we had been in HKIOD in forecasting post-independence events in Seychelles! In fact, I agree, with respect, with Mr Stanleyb "personal reflections" in paragraph 3 of his minute, i.e. that we can only make the best available arrangements for each territory and that there is no way of guaranteeing what will happen after independence. I am sure that the whole history of UK decolonization in the late 1950s and 1960s bears out this view. I should be doubtful therefore whether a fuller analysis of the reasons for the Seychelles coup will provide us with any worthwhile guidance in dealing with other candidates for independence. This said, we shall have to pursue paragraph 4 of Mr Stanley's minute and I suggest that, as a first step, you tell Mr Carter in EAD, the desk officer on Seychelles, that Mr Cortazzi has endorsed action on these lines, and ask him to let you have any considered assessment that may now be available of the coup in Seychelles. Once we have that, we should consult again with EAD and see what, if anything, we can offer up which may be of general interest. Ás the sole survivor (apart from Janet Graham) of HKIOD in the department, I should be ready to see what I can do to help.
15 June 1977
D.f. dulkor
D F Milton
Hong Kong & General Department
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY No. 51
16 JUN 1977
AKG 012/5
CODE 18. 17
covering confidential