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(i) UK withdrawal and incorporation in China 1997.

Prospects: Remote unless the ideologues take over in Peking and disastrous if they do. Impossible to announce to population in Hong Kong and impossible to implement even gradually without agreement becoming obvious thore. Grave political problems for

HIG

(j) Forcible Chinese takeover +

1997.

Prospects: Remote (as at (h) above) and particularly disadvantageous economically to China. If quick, likely to reduce the immigration liability on the UK but a serious blow to British business interests and perhaps also the British Government of the day if it could be argued that the Government had mishandled the situation.

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