(17865) Dd.145178 400m 5/73 G.W.B.Ltd. Gp.863
NOTHING TO BE WRITTEN IN THIS MARGIN
*
CONFIDENTIAL
2. In his Despatch, the Governor suggests that this ratio could rise to about 221% in 1979/80. Are there any figures to support this?
Yes.
The 1976/77 Budget papers provide a basis for deriv-
ing the following estimates:
(At 1976 prices)
*
Public expenditure
(HK million)
Gross domestic
Ratio
product
(HK million)
76/77
8224
39,317
20.9
77/78
9143
42,162
21.7
78/79
9844
44,903
21.9
79/80
10511
47,822
22.0°
as per Statistical Appendices for 1976/77.and page 113 of Budget speech for 1977/78 to 1979/80, with General Revenue Account figures being grossed up by 15% to provide Consoli- dated Account estimates (grossing up implicit in 1976/77 actual figures is 14%).
assumed to increase,in real terms, by 9% in 1976, 71% in 1977 and 6% thereafter as per paragraphs 31 and 40-41 of Budget speech. No constant price change is assumed for 1976, para- graph 38 of Budget speech notwithstanding, taking into account that public expenditure figures for 1976/77 and sub- sequent years are based on early 1976 prices which are at average levels for 1975.
Yes, but what after 1979/80?
CONFIDENTIAL