The most important point in the obituary message is the emphasis it places on unity and unification of the Party. It also reaffirms current internal and (as pointed out above) foreign policies in con- ventional terms. The message refers to the strengthening of the army and militia and this could be interpreted as recognition of the important role the armed forces will have to play during the succession period.
f
6. The Funeral Committee itself is composed of all Central Committee and Politburo members in conventional ranking. This suggests that no decisions have yet been taken about the future composition of the leadership. Nor would we expect any decision until after the period of mourning, which ends on 18 September, is over.
7. None of this evidence provides much of a guide to the course of events in the next few weeks. Our best guess is. that there will be an effort to impose unity and co-operation by those around Hua Kuo-feng. We would expect the army to support these efforts. The radicals are in a difficult position since the longer they wait the more they are likely to lose their influence, particularly since up till now they have depended to a considerable extent on Mao's backing for their power base. They could try to assert themselves and if they did a violent situation could arise. Even then, however, with only limited support in the army, the government and the party machine, it is difficult to see them manoeuvring themselves into a position where they could claim the succession to Mao.
10 September 1976
cc: PS/PUS
PS/Lord Goronwy-Roberts
News Department
HKD
Planning Staff
Dr Wilson
Mr Walker
Cabinet Office
Research Dept.
JF R Martin
Far Eastern Department
CONFIDENTIAL