CONFIDENTIAL
CHINA AFTER MAO
1. The death of Chairman Mao Tse tung on 9 September at the age of 82, although not unexpected, was an event of immense political significance. He was the last and greatest of a generation of exceptional leaders, and leaves a vacuum that will be almost impossible to fill for some time. No single individual in China appears to have the power to assume complete authority, and the immediate prospect is for some kind of collective leadership, with the emphasis on unity and continuity, while manoeuvring continues behind the scenes.
2.
The succession struggle has been under way since before the death of Chou En-lai in January. The radicals scored an important victory in purging Mao's heir apparent Teng Hsiao-p'ing, but they have been conspicuously unable to press home their advantage, and the campaign to criticise Teng's policies appears to have lost its momentum. With Mao gone, they will no longer be able to claim his authority for their ideological campaigns, and it is likely that the position of such radical figures as Chiang Ching, Yao Wen-yuan and possibly Wang Hung-wen will have been weakened by the removal of the Chairman's protection. Chang Chun-chlao, formerly identified with this group may try to move closer to the centre of the political spectrum in a bid to strengthen his appeal.
3.
The moderates have been without a leader since the death of Chou and the fall of Teng, and the Defence Minister, Yeh Chien-ying is probably too infirm to take on the role. But numerically they appear to match the radicals in the Politburo, and the moderate line is almost certainly favoured in the State Bureaucracy, the Party, and the country at large (this was dramatically illustrated by the Tien An Men riots in April which were an unequivocal demonstration of support for the moderate policies of Chou En-lai).
4.
Premier Hua Kuo-feng has so far managed to avoid identification with one or other of the factions. He has adopted a cautious, orthodox approach and main- tained a balance between moderate and radical statements in recent speeches. His authority has if anything grown in recent months, and the earthquake crisis appears to have enhanced his national prestige. However, it is too early to say whether he is anything more than a transitional figure.
5. The Army will play an important role in the coming months. The top military leaders have kept a low profile during the recent campaigns and their true loyalties are unclear: they have not become involved in the anti Teng movement but neither did they act to prevent his downfall. It is likely however that they would favour moderate policies where these laid stress on modernising the economy as a whole and the Armed Forces in particular. They would probably intervene directly if radical excesses led to a breakdown of order with a resulting threat to national security.
/6.
CONFIDENTIAL